Blue Jays Ripple Effect: Trevor Bauer to LA
What Bauer's deal with the Dodgers could mean for Toronto and the SP market
Just before 10:00 am on Tuesday, January 26th a signing broke. Cesar Hernandez had agreed to a deal with the Cleveland Indians (pending a physical).
Nothing flashy. A short-term deal for a solid middle infielder.
A few hours later another minor infield deal, Freddy Galvis, $1.5 million to the Orioles. That evening, an Instagram post broke that Marcus Semien had agreed on a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. Minutes later, Andrelton Simmons was a Twin. The next morning Tommy La Stella was a Giant.
The 2020/2021 MLB offseason has been a lot of waiting, and then suddenly, none at all. Reports of Masahiro Tanaka and Corey Kluber deals trickled in throughout the winter, but there is a clear domino holding up the starting pitching market. Like him or not, Trevor Bauer was the top arm in this year’s free agency and the rest fall behind. So it should come as no surprise that while Trevor Bauer and his agent Rachel Luba sorted through offers this offseason, James Paxton, Jake Odorizzi, and Taijuan Walker have had to wait. But with Bauer reportedly agreeing to a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, there’s now nothing holding back that next tier.
The Jays met with Bauer early in the offseason, but after the Semien and George Springer acquisitions, it became clear they would be shopping in the second-tier pitching market, if at all. In the last few days, Jays management and “industry sources” have dropped hints that Toronto may still be looking to “improve their run prevention,” and the best way to add to a rotation that features Hyun-Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, and a whole lot of question marks.
The Jays have been connected to all of Paxton, Odorizzi, and their 2020 deadline acquisition Taijaun Walker at times this offseason, and with Bauer off the board, the next options might start following any day, or even hour.
This wouldn’t be the first time Paxton was almost a Blue Jay. Toronto and Paxton’s agent, Scott Boras, failed to come to terms after the Jays selected “Big Maple” in the first round of the 2009 draft. Odorizzi has been linked to the Jays in the past too, as the team took a run at the right-hander before he accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins last offseason. And the Jays clearly liked Walker enough to give up a top 30 prospect for a half-season of him.
While free agency has seemed like a grocery store for the Blue Jays this offseason, picking and choosing from the elite produce, Toronto aren’t the only SP suitors. According to Mark Feinsand, the Phillies and Cardinals are looking at the same pitching tier the Jays are hopeful to pry from, and the Giants, Angels, and Twins have all been linked to starting pitching. With Bauer choosing the Dodgers over the Mets, New York, who has shown interest in at least Odorizzi, may also be in the market for an arm.
In an SP market similar to a game of musical chairs with far more dancers than seats, when the music stops someone’s going to be left empty-handed. Atkins and company have proven (at least this offseason) they are willing to overpay and jump the market when needed, so there is no reason to expect they won’t land an arm, if they want one. But if they end up chairless in free agency, the trade market will still be there and could pick up too with Bauer signed.
It is hard to see the Jays adding from the tier below Paxton/Odorizzi/Walker with a glut of fifth starters with fourth starter upside already on the roster. If they miss on the top remaining arms, trades for Kyle Hendricks, Luis Castillo, or German Marquez would make a lot more sense than a Cole Hamels or Rick Porcello addition. Does LA adding major payroll and a top-of-rotation arm mean David Price could be traded?
It is impossible to say what comes next, but Bauer’s lengthy and media-saturated free agency has come to an end. The Bauer domino may not spark the pitching market, but it can no longer hold it back.