Who should be the Blue Jays' 5th starter
Stripling, Matz, Roark, a darkhorse? Who will be Toronto's Opening Day SP5
Juggling rotation spots between Steven Matz, Ross Stripling, Tanner Roark, and Robbie Ray sounds like a damn good problem to have … in 2018. Heading into 2021, it may also be a good problem, for a different reason. The Jays — and, well, every team — will need more stretched-out arms than ever after a shortened 2020 and the abbreviated workloads that came with it. Only five or six arms will be traditional “starters” for the Jays on Opening Day, but after Hyun-Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, and Ray, things get messy.
The Jays should, and probably will sign another mid-rotation SP this winter — may I interest you in Taijuan Walker, Jake Odorizzi, or James Paxton? — but the options for the bottom of the rotation seem to be set.
The favourites:
Remember we’re talking about fifth starters here. Please don’t gasp at a double-digit ERA or single-digit K/9s.
The Blue Jays’ best options for the bottom of the 2021 rotation are Tanner Roark and his 6.8 2020 ERA and Steven Matz's somehow worse 9.68 mark. At face value, those are some ugly run averages, but they were the worst ERA’s of both pitchers’ careers and came in a shortened season.
Roark’s claim for a rotation spot is, if nothing else, his ability to log innings. Prior to 2020, the 34-year-old registered four straight seasons of 165+ innings (with a career ERA lower than Trevor Bauer’s). He struggled in 2020, allowing 2.6 HR/9 and rarely making it to or through the fifth inning, but the body of work is there. We may expect Roark’s homer issues to normalize in a full season, but the 2.3 dingers per-nine he allowed in 10 starts calling Oakland’s “RingCentral Coliseum” home in 2019 don’t inspire confidence either.
Matz’s case for SP5 is basically the opposite of Roarks, variance. His lows are lower than Roark’s, but Matz has a ceiling Roark hasn’t pushed since Cy Young votes in 2016. In 2018-2020, over 39% of Matz’s starts were quality starts and struck out seven-plus batters 18 times. Roark hasn’t had a quality start since 517 days. Even with those QS, an ability to pitch deep into games, and high strikeout totals, Matz’s career ERA is north of 4.35 and has risen in each of the last three years. He has eight starts since 2018 with 6+ runs against, so if Matz wins the SP5 role, don’t expect consistency.
The contenders:
In all likelihood, Matz or Roark will be the Opening Day SP5, but there are two names who have gone almost completely unmentioned in the conversation: Ross Stripling and Trent Thornton. Thornton pitched just 5.2 innings in 2020 before missing the season with elbow surgery, and Stripling was Toronto’s most expensive (return wise) deadline acquisition. Stripling, like every starter in this conversation so far, was objectively terrible in 2020 — 5.84 ERA, 1.5 WHIP, a 2.22 K/BB — but he is only 31, has a career of sub-4 ERA seasons, and, by all accounts, is very bright and willing to make adjustments. Stripling might be the most underrated depth pitcher in baseball, let alone on the Blue Jays.
Fortunately for Toronto, and unfortunately for his desires to break camp with the Jays, Trent Thornton has three remaining option years that suggest he’s destined to be Buffalo’s ace to start 2021. Thornton logged 154 innings in his rookie 2019 season with a near league average ERA. He seems like the ideal sixth starter, but a good spring can change a lot.
The darkhorses:
After three years of “raising the floor” one thing the Blue Jays don’t lack is pitching depth. Former starters Tyler Chatwood and Shun Yamaguchi seem destined for the bullpen, so the true darkhorses for 2021 SP5 are the kids. Even with high variance arms like Stripling and Matz, you know what you’re gonna get from them if everything breaks right. For the youngsters, the best part is that ceiling has yet to be established.
The Jays got great 2020’s from Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, Julian Merryweather, and even Patrick Murphy — all prospect starters who contributed to the most underrated bullpen in baseball. According to Ross Atkins, all of those arms will be converted back into starters next year. They will likely make up what could be a dominant AAA rotation, but how nice would it be if one of them broke out in a big way?
It’s not just a dream either, Kay struck out almost 10 per-nine out of the pen last year, Hatch was basically unhittable for the first few weeks of the season, and Merryweather started three games, averaged 97 MPH on the gun, and posted a 2.27 FIP.
They all have visible flaws (though the more I look at Merryweather, the more I think he should pitch playoff games for Toronto, not just be the fifth starter), but regardless of where they start 2021, all will get an opportunity to pitch innings and maybe start games, for the big league club.