Who's on third? Will Cavan Biggio stick at 3B in 2021
The Blue Jays have addressed many holes on their roster, but third base is not one
When an Instagram post leaked that Marcus Semien had signed with the Blue Jays it seemed Toronto’s final position player hole was filled. Semien would slot in at third and round out the Jays’ offensively and defensively upgraded lineup, right?
But, snuck in at the end of Carlos Baerga’s post was a note that Semien had “received a little more money for agreeing to move from SS to 2B.” All indications point to Semien being a great addition for the Jays with offensive upside and unmatched character, but if he is going to slot in at second, the Jays have some shuffling to do. Toronto has a glaring hole at third and few internal candidates to fill it.
Candidate No. 1, Skinny Vlad, will get a shot at 3B in spring, but he would need to surprise many to stick at the hot corner. In 2019, Vlad Guerrero Jr. was the second-worst defender in the MLB, posting -16 Outs Above Average at third base. Even at first base in 2020, Vlad was still the second-worst defender on the Blue Jays with -2 OAA.
The more likely candidate, and who Toronto reporters have speculated as the favorite, is Cavan Biggio. Biggio played 10 games at 3B in 2020 and two playoff games, committing only one error and posting a fielding percentage of .964. While Biggio played the bulk of his minor league games at second base, he logged 47 starts at third, including 34 starts in AA in 2018.
When he was ninth on the Blue Jays 2018 top prospects list, Biggio was listed as a 2B/3B. The MLB.com scouting report said he made up for “modest range with sure-handedness, sound footwork and good instincts,” and graded his arm and fielding at 50 on a 20-80 scale.
While the MLB sample size for Biggio at third is too small to make any judgments, he played a below average but passable 3B in 2020. According to BaseballSavant’s OAA, he was -1 OAA in 10 games and posted a play success rate 4% below average. He struggled more playing the position “straight up,” and was only a percentage point below average when hugging the third base line. In 81 innings at third in 2020, Biggio posted a -1 UZR, -2 DRS, and just a 64% "revised zone rating".
Extrapolating Biggio’s -1 OAA in 10 games to a 162 game season, his OAA is basically on par with Guerrero Jr’s from 2019. The sample is, however, so small it is hardly worth evaluating, and with under 60 starts at the position across all levels he would likely improve at the position. Biggio has talked in the past about working on his defensive footwork and the confidence and comfort that comes over time.
"With the work I've been able to put in, it's just more consistently better footwork where I'm able to maximize my range and continue to dominate," Biggio told USA Today. "When my feet are moving good I feel more confident, I feel more loose and I'm able to make more plays."
Biggio’s improvements aren’t all just talk either. In 735 innings in 2019, Biggio posted a -.3 UZR at second base. In 281 2020 innings, his UZR was 1.2 at the position. His DRS also improved from -1 to +2 at second from 2019 to 2020. If a full season at 3B shows similar benefits, Biggio could become an average third baseman, or, dare I say, a good one.
Shifting away from 3B:
The need for a traditional elite “third basemen” is declining across the league. With MLB teams shifting more than ever, simply good defenders are as valuable as players assigned to a specific position. The Jays shifted the fifth most in the American League last year (36.7%), and shifted over 59.5% of the time against left-handed batters.
While the normal v LHH shift would have the 3B move over to where the SS plays, the SS to 2B, and the 2B deep in the RF hole, the Jays could maximize their defense by playing Biggio in the RF hole, and leaving their traditional shortstops — Semien and Bichette — to cover the middle and left side of the infield.
With all that said, Biggio’s value to the Jays (aside from the absurd walk rate) is his versatility. While he will likely log 100+ games at third base this season, he’s a (defensive) placeholder for a Jordan Groshans or Austin Martin, barring any major setbacks. Biggio’s strides at 3B will be important to Toronto’s 2021 success, but if he is somehow a disaster there is always Joe Panik or the trade deadline, and he will be back in his super-utility role in 2022.