What playing in Dunedin could mean for the Blue Jays
If Dunedin is Toronto's 2021 home, how could it affect the Blue Jays on and off the field
The Toronto Blue Jays are homeless once again. As successful as 2020 seemed, the Jays have made it pretty clear they don’t want to be playing home games in Buffalo again next season. So, unless COVID decides to get up and leave or Justin Trudeau is a big fan of George Springer, it looks like Toronto will start the 2021 regular season in Dunedin, Florida.
Toronto’s 2021 home, or lack of, hasn’t affected their ability to draw free agents this winter, but it could impact their success and game plan for the coming season.
Dunedin facilities
The Blue Jays have played Spring Training out of their Dunedin home since 1977, and they are the only team that has never relocated their Spring Training site.
The Dunedin facilities, fortunately, are not 40+ years old as Toronto underwent a rebranding and overhaul of their Spring Training home in 2019. Florida Auto Exchange became TD Ballpark and Toronto’s high-A affiliate’s home park became Major League class.
Ironically, much of the 2020 construction was enhancing the fan experience (a boardwalk around the park, capacity increase, and new food vendors), but the $102 million renovations to the player development facilities are Dunedin’s real draw in a likely fanless 2021.
Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins’ modernization and of Toronto’s organization and Spring Training home brought in a 10,000 square foot weight room, eight locker rooms, two dining rooms, three sports labs, two "Fuel Bars" (whatever that means), pools, saunas, conference rooms, and more. While the charm of working out on the concourse of Buffalo’s Sahlen field worked for a 60-game season, Dunedin is built to handle 162.
Dunedin park effects
Despite the development complex and renovations, left-handed reliever Ryan Borucki has some issues playing in TD Ballpark. In his 25 minor league starts in the A+ Florida State League, Borucki has a 5.24 ERA and 15 home runs allowed. He has some Dunedin PTSD, he said recently on Ross Stripling’s Big Swing Podcast.
“The only problem I have with Dunedin is that it turns into band box in the early months,” Borucki said. “And that’s when we want to play in it. Balls are just flying outta that place. I’m telling you if we thought Buffalo was bad because of home runs, Dunedin is going to be twice as bad.”
While Borucki struggled more than most during his Dunedin stints, the numbers back up his claims. Looking at three different data set’s from MILB.com and Baseball America, the Dunedin park factors far outpace the normally pitcher-friendly Florida State League.
At first glance, it looks like Borcuki’s weekly Dunedin-PTSD meetings might have a few more participants this year. But, lucky for Toronto both teams play the same game at the same park, and the Jays might be as equipped as anyone to handle their new home.
In 2020, the Jays hit the fourth-most homers and third-most doubles in the American League (they’ve since added George Springer and Marcus Semien). And despite playing out of the homer-friendly Sahlen Field, their pitching posted a 4.6 ERA and was middle of the pack — exactly 15th — in home runs allowed.
The Jays have some interesting arms, but there is no doubt this team is built to out-hit teams, and calling TD Ballpark home is going to allow them to do exactly that.
Player familiarity
Look at the New York Yankees building an entire franchise around a short rightfield porch and it becomes clear home-field advantage goes beyond a friendly crowd.
It isn’t really their ‘home field’ but, like Sahlen last year, TD Ballpark may provide a bigger advantage than usual for Toronto. Many of the Blue Jays 2021 roster learned how to play professional baseball in Dunedin. They know the weird batters eye, the distance to the backstop, and bounces off the outfield wall. Only former Dunedin Blue Jays, like Borucki, would know the sun sets right in the eyes of the third basemen during night games and can be a disaster for fielding.
“I’ll never forget,” Borucki said on the Big Swing Podcast. “Josh Donaldson was doing a rehab start and he made three errors in the first inning because he was like blinded and they didn’t give him any errors and we cost this kid seven runs.”
Toronto went 17-9 at “home” last year (15-19 on the road), and, following a 5-8 road trip to begin the season, won 59% of their remaining games. Players who had hundreds of plate appearances playing for AAA Buffalo in the minors — like Rowdy Tellez, Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, and Teoscar Hernández — broke out in a big way in 2020 back at their old park.
A season back in Florida might be exactly what Guerrero (who posted a .944 A+ OPS in 2017) or Danny Jansen (.963 ‘17 OPS in Dunedin ) need.