No Odorizzi, No Problem? The State of Toronto's Rotation
Will the Blue Jays' rotation question marks hold the 2021 roster back?
The Blue Jays formalized the signing of Marcus Semien on January 30, 2021. His signing capped off a month where Toronto’s off-season dreams of signing George Springer became reality, and Kirby Yates, Tyler Chatwood, and Steven Matz were consecutive cherries on top.
Despite the flurry of January moves, one clear hole remained: A mid-rotation starting pitcher. It was a hole at the beginning of the offseason, a hole in January, and it is still a hole two weeks into Spring Training.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is the ace of this team. He is one of the best pitchers in baseball and the only flaw he has is a lack of career durability. If the Blue Jays are going to make a run at a wildcard spot or AL East title this year, Ryu must stay healthy and dominant. End of story.
There really isn’t a point of dwelling on Ryu much longer, because the true question marks follow. Toronto’s mid/back of rotation options fall into three groups:
1) The Nate Pearson Group
2) The High-Variance, High-Upside Middle
3) The Tanner Roark Group
In Group No. 1 we have, naturally, Nate Pearson. Pearson is unlike any other arm in Toronto’s organization. Across A+, AA, and AAA in 2019 Pearson pitched 101 innings, had a 2.3 ERA, struck out 10.5 per nine, and walked only 2.4. He was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and the best young arm Toronto has had since Kyle Drabek (shivers). And in 2020, it all went wrong. Elbow tightness kept him out for most of the shortened season and in the four starts and 18 innings he did pitch, he had a 6.0 ERA, 7.19 FIP, and walked 6.5/9.
Steamer projects 126 IP, a 4.61 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 3.64 BB/9. ZiPS is a little higher with a 4.0 ERA in 99 innings with a 9.73 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9. Projection systems are good, and are getting better, but for a guy like Pearson you might as well throw them out the window. Truthfully, who knows what Nate Pearson will be in 2021. If he is good (and healthy) he will be a diametrically opposed co-ace to Ryu on a 120-130 innings limit. If he is bad (or hurt) he may find himself in the bullpen or Buffalo by July. He is one of many pitching wildcards that could determine Toronto’s season, but he has a high and attainable ceiling.
Group No. 2 is the mushy middle — Ross Atkins’ dart throws at guys with SP2 upside and AAAA floors — Robbie Ray, Ross Stripling, and Steven Matz.
Ray, Stripling, and Matz have two All-Star appearances and a couple of Cy Young votes between them, but in 2020 they combined for an over seven ERA. Their 2020 Baseball Savant pages are painted with blue (very much not good). Ray struggled to find the strike zone, while Matz and Stripling were two of the worst SP at keeping the ball in the park.
I’ve written about how Ray could be the SP2 on this team (and has shown a willingness to pound the zone in spring), and how Stripling — a career 3.77 ERA — may be the most overlooked arm on the roster. The Jays are, rightfully, expecting at least one of these guys to be solid mid to upper rotation options. The issue is all three are currently penciled in for the opening day rotation, so when, inevitably, one or two (god forbid three) don’t rebound from 2020, Toronto doesn’t have established options to replace them.
Group No. 3 is another stand-alone: Tanner Roark. It doesn't make a lot of sense considering his 6.8 2020 ERA and frustrating post-game comments, but Roark should be a stabilizing presence for Toronto’s rotation. A career 3.83 ERA with 183 lifetime starts, Toronto just needs Roark to give them five innings every fifth (or sixth) game, with a mid to high fours ERA. That’s what they brought him in to do last season, and it is what they need him to do this year. Despite being the fourth highest-paid player on the 2021 Blue Jays, Roark’s leash won’t be long. They need him to provide mediocre but stable innings — as hard as that might be in the hitter-friendly Dunedin — but if he can’t even do that, Toronto may be better served by another high-variance, upside arm.
Beyond the projected opening day rotation, Toronto has a brigade of intriguing arms on the 40-man roster including Trent Thornton, Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, Julian Merryweather, and TJ Zeuch. MLB rotations, Toronto’s included, will have to go eight or nine deep coming off a shortened season — IL stints will be frequent, and seven-inning starts will not be. Whether they start in the bullpen or in Buffalo, many of the “next men up” for Toronto all have upside — Merryweather throws 97 with a high-whiff changeup, Hatch was untouchable out of the pen last year, and Kay has above-average velocity and spin from the left side. While Toronto doesn’t have a five-man rotation that screams 90 wins, their depth and upside can keep them afloat.
However, the expectations for this team are not simply to ‘stay afloat’. This is a playoff offense and a playoff bullpen, but without some significant breakouts a playoff rotation they do not yet have. But, they don’t need a playoff rotation until October, and Toronto’s management seems aware of this. Instead of signing Jake Odorizzi, the Jays saved prospect capital and budget space to make a run at a likely cheaper deadline acquisition.
Much like Odorizzi, Toronto has been connected to Giants SP Kevin Gausman over the last few seasons and, barring a terrible start to 2021, he would be the ideal deadline addition as a pending FA. Some other potential 2022 free agents who could be on the move this season include Danny Duffy, Zach Davies, Jordan Lyles, Jon Gray, Michael Fiers, and Johnny Cueto. Each of them has question marks of their own, but waiting until July to trade for them affords Toronto the luxury of waiting to see who is good this year without taking the risk on who may not be.
Toronto’s rotation is not good in March, but with some luck and a shrewd addition, it may be good enough for October.