Early Spring Training Takeaways and Predictions
Takeaways and predictions from the beginning of Toronto's 2021 Spring Training
These aren’t hot takes, but they range from chilled to lukewarm. This is a list of outcomes, events, and transactions that I do, truly, think will happen this year. They’re based on something we’ve seen so far in Toronto’s 2-0-1 2021 spring, but many are growing trends that have been hinted at for some time.
Remember, we are talking baseball here: if I get 30% of these right, that should be considered a resounding success (especially with some walks and sac flies to bring up the OBP).
1. Bo Bichette doubles his 2020 walk rate
Am I completely blinded by four Spring Training plate appearances that ended in three well-fought walks? Yes. Do I care? No.
Only two shortstops have posted a higher OPS than Bichette’s .896 through age 22: Fernando Tatis Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. Bichette is doing it with a career 5.6 BB%, and a 3.9 walk rate in 2020 (Tatis Jr.’s career mark is 9.1%). It is not a stretch to say 600 PAs and a 6% or higher walk rate would make Bichette a legit MVP candidate — he might even be without it.
Part of Bichette’s success is his swing first, ask questions later approach (his 69% contact rate on balls outside the zone is one of the highest in baseball). He doesn’t have to be Cavan Biggio (the difference between their swing approach can be seen below), but the patience to take bad pitches, and still crush anything close, would elevate Bichette’s already impressive game.
2. Robbie Ray solidifies himself as Toronto’s SP2
Caveat: I think Toronto’s second-best 2021 starting pitcher isn’t on their roster right now. But, as things sit (Ryu, Ray, Pearson, Roark, etc.), I think Robbie Ray will be Toronto’s second-best starter — certainly in quantity, and maybe in quality too.
After coming over from the Diamondbacks at the 2020 deadline, Ray cut his BB/9 by three (down to 6.1, yikes), nearly halved his homer-rate, and lowered his FIP by two runs. The stats still weren’t pretty but they improved, and Toronto clearly has enough faith in the lefty to pitch him in a playoff game and to give him $9 million in the offseason.
Ray started his 2021 spring with two innings pitched, two strikeouts, a massive homer by Anthony Alford, but most importantly: no walks. If Ray can carry his Pete Walker improvements into 2021, getting anywhere close to his 2017, 2018, or even 2019 self, he should become one of the few SP Toronto can rely on for length every fifth day.
Yes, Nate Pearson seems like the more obvious candidate for Toronto’s second-best starter, but his already short innings leash will get even shorter if control struggles from 2020 carry into this year. Best case scenario Ray and Pearson both dominate in 2021, but whoever finds the strike zone with consistency will have the inside track for a potential game two start in the ALDS.
3. Rowdy Tellez finds playing time
In case you missed it, Rowdy Tellez broke out in 2020. He posted an .886 OPS, hit eight homers in 35 games, and had a hard-hit rate of 45.3%. His OPS was higher than that of Paul Goldschmidt, Trevor Story, Pete Alonso, and Christian Yelich. Early this spring he has shown no signs of stopping, registering three batted balls hit over 100 MPH. Heading into the season, however, he’ll be fighting for playing time.
Having too many good players is a great problem to have, and one the Jays haven’t had in a long time. It is also a problem that often works itself out (injury, rest days, platoons, performance swings). But as things currently sit, Charlie Montoyo needs to find at bats for Tellez, especially against right-handed pitching.
With the Blue Jays playing in the hitter (especially left-handed) friendly Dunedin to start the year, Tellez is set to benefit more than any other Blue Jay. A pseudo-platoon between Tellez and Randal Grichuk, where Tellez plays 1B/DH v RHP and Grichuk plays RF/DH v LHP (and Teoscar Hernandez fills the open spot in both lineups) would seem to work, but Tellez showed last year he could force his way to every-day playing time.
4. Ross Stripling is 2016-2019 Ross Stripling
This isn’t even a prediction, merely a public service announcement. Ross Stripling has become the forgotten man in Blue Jays camp, and I don’t know why.
From 2016 to 2019, Stripling made 22 starts, threw almost 400 innings in a swingman role, and never posted an ERA over 4.0. He was productive and versatile for the Dodgers and will have an opportunity to fill a very similar role with Toronto.
Much like Steven Matz, Stripling’s 2020 issue was a massive spike in HR, which may seem hard to improve in Dunedin or Buffalo. But in 2020, Stripling’s HR/FB ballooned to 22.8% (from a career 15.7%) showing at least some bad luck. The Blue Jays clearly have some faith in a Stripling rebound considering they gave up prospects Kendall Williams and Ryan Noda to acquire him from Los Angeles.
If Stripling can pitch 100 innings or more, make starts when needed, or piggyback after someone with a different look like Matz, Anthony Kay, or Nate Pearson, he could be a valuable weapon for the 2021 Blue Jays.
5. One of Gurriel Jr. or Grichuk is traded in season
This prediction is presented as one, but a Lourdes Gurriel Jr or Randal Grichuk trade would net two very different returns and cause very different reactions within the fanbase.
One thing a potential Gurriel or Grichuk deal would share is motivation. The Blue Jays outfield is full already and Jordan Groshans/Austin Martin displacing Cavan Biggio in the next year or two could make the OF situation even busier. Jonathan Davis and Josh Palacios both seem like could hold down a fourth outfield role for the 2021 Toronto Blue Jays, so Grichuk or Gurriel Jr. seem like potential MLB trade candidates to address the clear starting pitching need.
A Grichuk trade would need prospects attached to net anything of value, but Gurriel Jr. — a 2020 gold glove finalist with an .836 career OPS — could be the centrepiece of a trade for a team looking for young major leaguers rather than far off prospects to dream on.
The Blue Jays management has admitted how highly they (over?) value their prospects, and if they were going to deal a Gabriel Moreno or Adam Kloffenstein, I think they may have already done it. Nothing this front office does is random, so we can assume Toronto was prepared to move someone from their outfield when they came pretty close to signing LF/DH Michael Brantley, and they may still be considering it.
The Jays may still sign Jake Odorizzi or trade for a lower-cost pending free agent like Kevin Gausman at the deadline, but if they are looking to trade for a long-term fix at SP, there will be MLB casualties.