Blue Jays Tuesday Takeaways: April 13, 2021
Rotation getting healthy, lineup consistency, and other takeaways from Toronto's second week of the season
After the Blue Jays’ first 11 games of 2021 they sit at 5-6, in a four-way tie for second (and last) in the AL East, and a series win away from .500. Toronto has scored the 12th most runs in the league (49), and allowed the eight least (40). Some of the games have been heartbreaking, others dreadfully boring, but the Jays are staying in games and winning some too — just not how we thought they would.
Injury Updates:
Teoscar Hernandez: Earliest return April 27th from COVID-19
George Springer: Earliest return April 27th from oblique and quad strains
Julian Merryweather: Left hip irritation, return unknown
David Phelps: Back contusion, return unknown
Tyler Chatwood: Playing catch after tricep inflammation, return unknown
Nate Pearson: Ramping up innings after strained groin, return unknown
Thomas Hatch: 20-pitch bullpen Tuesday, return unknown
Rotation Showing Upside:
Toronto has a lower team ERA than the Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, and Tampa Bay Rays (and 21 other teams). Julian Merryweather and the entire bullpen have picked up where they left off in 2021, but the rotation is showing upside only delusion Jays fans dreamed of. Through 11 games, the rotation has been stabilized by Steven Matz, who has given up 2 ER in 12.1 IP, and Hyun Jin Ryu, who has a 1.89 ERA through 19 IP.
Behind the expected ace and surprise SP2, Toronto’s rotation has been sloppy, but there are signs of life. Robbie Ray returned from his bruised elbow IL stint and coasted through five innings against the Yankees before Jay-killer Kyle Higashioka tagged him for two runs. On Tuesday, we learned Nate Pearson was all systems go and ramping up for a starter’s workload and Thomas Hatch might be close behind him.
With Tanner Roark officially out of the rotation, Ray joining it with a statement outing, and Nate Pearson at least on the distant horizon, Toronto’s rotation has the potential for competence. The starting pitching was, rightfully so, the biggest concern surrounding this team heading into the year, but Blue Jays’ management held pat, declining to bolster the staff with a James Paxton (who is now out for the year) or Jake Odorizzi. They made gambles on a continued rebound from Robbie Ray, Pete Walker magic working on Steven Matz, Tanner Roark regressing to his career norms, and Nate Pearson living up to the hype. Seven percent into the 2021 season, at least two of those gambles are paying off.
Lineup Construction:
In 2020, Charlie Montoyo’s Blue Jays used 56 different lineups in a 60 game season. The lineup and batting order are going to change daily with injuries, rest days, and general tweaks, but the 2021 lineup seems like a true work in progress. Things may settle once Springer and Hernandez return from injury, but the biggest challenge Montoyo seems to be battling is where to bat Vlad Guerrero Jr. and how to utilize his sparse left-handed bats.
Vladdy Jr. has arrived in 2021 and it's not just some hot streak. In 12 games he is posting a 1.115 OPS, has 14 hits, is commanding the strike zone, and has the best plate approach of anyone on the team. He is undeniably the Jays’ best hitter right now, but Montoyo is still figuring out where to use him. Guerrero hit fifth on opening day, was moved up to fourth after first week of the season, and debuted in the three hole on April 12th. Once Springer returns, I’d be shocked if the batting order didn’t feature Springer/Bichette/Guerrero to start things off.
Where Toronto’s lineup has faltered is with the left-handed hitters. Though Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Guerrero and company can all perform against both sides of the platoon, Rowdy Tellez and Cavan Biggio — Toronto’s two everyday lefties — are posting batting averages under .150.
Tellez notched his first hit of the season on Monday and first homer on Tuesday, and Toronto must be hoping it is a sign of things to come. The Jays could really use a turnaround from Tellez and Biggio, because without some production from the weak side, Toronto will always be fighting an uphill platoon battle and can be exposed against hard-throwing right-handers.
Quick Stat:
The Toronto Blue Jays have turned the second most double plays per game in the MLB: 1.3
The New York Yankees have grounded into the most double plays per game: 1.1