Blue Jays Schedule Breakdown and Projection: April
The matchups and storylines to watch during Toronto's April schedule
From Gerrit Cole on Opening Day to an early trip to the Trop (shudders), the Toronto Blue Jays’ April schedule will test what this team has got. Over 70% of their first 25 games will come against teams projected to be in and around the playoffs and they face off against a few of their biggest competition for a playoff spot.
Quick facts:
April Games: 25
April Off Days: 5
Games vs teams projected over .500: 18
Games vs under .500: 7
2020 Record vs April Opponents: 17-20
*Note: All 6:37 PM starts have been changed to 7:07 starts as of March 30
3 @ New York Yankees: April 1 - 4
No George Springer, no Robbie Ray, and a three-game set against two Cy Young winners and Domingo German. Fun start.
Toronto played the Yankees well in 2020, splitting the 10-game season series and finishing just a game back in the standings. While most expectations seem set on a Blue Jays Wild Card birth, if Toronto wants to hang around in the AL East they’ll have to, at worst, split games with New York.
3 @ Texas Rangers: April 5 - 7
Going from the Bronx to a place (well, a new stadium near a place) they’ve had lots of recent success, should play well for Toronto. The Jays will draw former DFA’d Brave Mike Foltynewicz, top prospect and return for Lance Lynn, Dane Dunning, and likely ace Kyle Gibson. Despite a bounce-back in velocity, Foltynewicz posted a 10.1 spring ERA with a 2.38 WHIP but Dunning dominated. Toronto will likely send out Steven Matz and Tanner Roark for their season debuts in Texas — where the new Globe Life Field has acted as a far less homer-friendly park than the Rangers’ old home.
4 vs Los Angeles Angels: April 8 - 11
Predicting potential starting pitchers with the minor injuries, rest days, and randomness that can affect a rotation even six days into a season is essentially useless. What we do know about this series is that it could/should see the return of Robbie Ray to the rotation and the Blue Jay debut of George Springer.
Toronto’s first MLB series in Dunedin will be an interesting test to see how the park plays with concerns over lightning and all indications pointing to TD Ballpark being very homer-friendly.
3 vs New York Yankees: April 12 - 13
The last time the Yankees visited a non-Rogers Centre Blue Jay home they let up 10 runs in one inning and proceeded to complain about tipped pitches and bad lighting. Barring significant rotation changes, Toronto should be slated to get their second crack at Cole and Kluber during this series. Though Vlad Guerrero Jr. didn't post a spectacular slash-line last year, he demolished the Yankees, hitting .375/.405/.675. Let’s see what slim Vlad can do.
4 @ Kansas City Royals: April 15-18
A four-game series against a team FanGraphs projects to finish 10 games back of their division and four games under .500. If the Blue Jays have dropped some series to the Yankees early in the year, this should be an opportunity to get things back on track.
2 @ Boston Red Sox: April 20 - 21
With Chris Sale missing the first chunk of the season, FanGraphs projects Boston's Opening Day rotation to hold just two sub-five ERAs — Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Richards. While the Red Sox lineup still contains some threats, matchups against Boston are ones Toronto must be winning in 2021, especially with who looms next.
3 @ Tampa Bay Rays: April 23-25
Games against Tampa, and specifically games at Tropicana Field, will be the most important series of the year for Toronto. While the Yankees and other divisions will come into play, Toronto’s biggest and most direct competition for a playoff spot this year are the Rays. They sold off Blake Snell, but assuming the AL Champion, 40-20 Rays have taken a step back would be unwise.
Toronto will have an opportunity to wipe the bad taste of a 2-0 series sweep in the “Wild Card Series” last year, and hold serve on their biggest competitor.
2 vs New York Yankees: April 27 - 28
1 vs Atlanta Braves: April 30
To wrap up the month, Toronto has its first taste of interleague play. With a two-game set against the Nats and a three-game series against the Braves that carries into May, Toronto faces two of the five NL East opponents they’ll match up against this year. The NL East seems like the top-to-bottom toughest interleague division for Toronto to have drawn this year, which only emphasizes the importance of beating the Rays and coming at least second in the AL East if the Jays want to make the playoffs.
Toronto has a sneaky-tough schedule to start 2021, with important early matchups coming against the Yankees and Rays. I think the true test of where this Toronto team is at lies with the two four-game sets against the Angels and Royals — Springer and Ray should be back by then and those are teams the Jays need to be beating if they are serious about being a playoff team in 2021.